Solutions - Reporting Uncertainty

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis: A review of recent advances (2016)

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Sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo risk analysis, and Bayesian uncertainty assessment (2001)

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Sensitivity analyses to estimate the potential impact of unmeasured confounding in causal research (2010)

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Survey of Sampling-Based Methods for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis (2006)

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Calibration, Validation, and Sensitivity Analysis: What’s What (2006)

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Sensitivity Analysis in Observational Research: Introducing the E-Value (2017)

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Multimodel Ensembles

An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions (2014)

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Model Uncertainty in a Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: Stochastic versus Multiphysics Representations (2010)

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A Bayesian Framework for Multimodel Regression (2006)

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Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts for Weather and Seasonal Climate (2000)

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Bayesian merging of multiple climate model forecasts for seasonal hydrological predictions (2007)

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A simple method to improve ensemble-based ozone forecasts

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DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (DEMETER) (2004)

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REPRESENTING MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREDICTION (2005)

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Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts (2010)

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Superensemble Statistical Forecasting of Monthly Precipitation over the Contiguous United States, with Improvements from Ocean-Area Precipitation Predictors (2016)

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NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE - Improvement of the Multimodel Superensemble Technique for Seasonal Forecasts (2002)

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Forecast assimilation: a unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions (2005)

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Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts Using Quantile Regression Forests and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (2016)

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The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections (2007)

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Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles (2006)

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Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling (2016)

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Vibration of Effects

Why most discovered true associations are inflated (2009)

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Flexibility in the selection of patent counts: Implications for p-hacking and evidence-based policymaking (2020)

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Vibration of effects in epidemiologic studies of alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk (2020)

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Examining the robustness of observational associations to model, measurement and sampling uncertainty with the vibration of effects framework (2020)

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Assessment of vibration of effects due to model specification can demonstrate the instability of observational associations (2015)

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Multiverse Analysis

Increasing Transparency Through a Multiverse Analysis (2016)

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A Traveler’s Guide to the Multiverse: Promises, Pitfalls, and a Framework for the Evaluation of Analytic Decisions

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Increasing the Transparency of Research Papers with Explorable Multiverse Analyses (2019)

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Boba: Authoring and Visualizing Multiverse Analyses (2020)

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Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis: A review of recent advances (2016)

Sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo risk analysis, and Bayesian uncertainty assessment (2001)

Sensitivity analyses to estimate the potential impact of unmeasured confounding in causal research (2010)

Survey of Sampling-Based Methods for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis (2006)

Calibration, Validation, and Sensitivity Analysis: What’s What (2006)

Sensitivity Analysis in Observational Research: Introducing the E-Value (2017)

Intercomparison Studies

Validation of the energy budget of an alpine snowpack simulated by several snow models (SnowMIP project) (2004)

ESM-SnowMIP: assessing snow models and quantifying snow-related climate feedbacks (2018)

Evaluation of forest snow processes models (SnowMIP2) (2009)

Multimodel Ensembles

An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions (2014)

Model Uncertainty in a Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: Stochastic versus Multiphysics Representations (2010)

A Bayesian Framework for Multimodel Regression (2006)

Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts for Weather and Seasonal Climate (2000)

Bayesian merging of multiple climate model forecasts for seasonal hydrological predictions (2007)

A simple method to improve ensemble-based ozone forecasts

DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (DEMETER) (2004)

REPRESENTING MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREDICTION (2005)

Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts (2010)

Superensemble Statistical Forecasting of Monthly Precipitation over the Contiguous United States, with Improvements from Ocean-Area Precipitation Predictors (2016)

NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE - Improvement of the Multimodel Superensemble Technique for Seasonal Forecasts (2002)

Forecast assimilation: a unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions (2005)

Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts Using Quantile Regression Forests and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (2016)

The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections (2007)

Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles (2006)

Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling (2016)

Crowdsourcing

Vibration of Effects

Why most discovered true associations are inflated (2009)

Flexibility in the selection of patent counts: Implications for p-hacking and evidence-based policymaking (2020)

Vibration of effects in epidemiologic studies of alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk (2020)

Examining the robustness of observational associations to model, measurement and sampling uncertainty with the vibration of effects framework (2020)

Assessment of vibration of effects due to model specification can demonstrate the instability of observational associations (2015)

Multiverse Analysis

Increasing Transparency Through a Multiverse Analysis (2016)

A Traveler’s Guide to the Multiverse: Promises, Pitfalls, and a Framework for the Evaluation of Analytic Decisions

Increasing the Transparency of Research Papers with Explorable Multiverse Analyses (2019)

Boba: Authoring and Visualizing Multiverse Analyses (2020)

Multimodel Analysis

Model Uncertainty and the Crisis in Science (2018)

Model Uncertainty and Robustness: A Computational Framework for Multimodel Analysis (2017)

Specification Curve

Specification curve: Descriptive and inferential statistics on all reasonable specifications (2015)

Probing Birth-Order Effects on Narrow Traits Using Specification-Curve Analysis (2017)

Computational Robustness Analysis

We ran 9 billion regressions: Eliminating false positives through computational model robustness (2018)